Uncertainty quantification for multidisciplinary launch vehicle design using model order reduction and spectral methods

The early design phase of launch vehicles often involves low fidelity models that are characterized by a high level modeling uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be propagated into the whole process in order ensure robustness found vehicle architecture. Launch trajectory optimization induces large computational cost for uncertainty propagation using nested loop approach (outer and inner optimal control loop). In this paper, methodology is proposed build surrogate model on carry out quantification at reduced cost. couples spectral methods allow generate trajectories as functions input method applied two-stage-to-orbit several analyses (reliability analysis, sensitivity quantile estimation).